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Alex Sink Seeking Senate in Florida?

Cross-posted at www.draftalex.com

n689468099_962883_7922It's pretty obvious that people are hoping that Alex Sink tosses her hat in the ring or higher office. The question we hope she's facing right now is which one: Senate or Guvna?

There are perhaps a few too many calls for Alex Sink to be our Senate nominee.  This morning, Blast Off! even called for her to run for Senate and forget about the governor's mansion.

At Draft Alex Sink for Governor our bias is pretty obvious. But, think for a second about why running for Senate wouldn't be as good as a move.

First, just in terms of personality and experience, Alex is perfectly suited to be governor. She's been an executive- and that's what a governor theoretically does (just don't look to Charlie for an example). Dan Gelber, Bob Wexler, Allen Boyd- these men are legislators- damn good ones, if I may. Their skills and interests fit the profile of a Senator more than Alex's do.

There is a crowded bench already. Alex would have to compete with the likes of Dan Gelber and Chris Korge, maybe Allen Boyd, or even Bob Wexler. Those are some serious players, who could all represent the state well and some will run if she gets in or not. Alex could win the primary and the general, but why go for Senate to when the bench is already so deep, so good.

Winning the senate seat back is going to be tougher than we imagine. Sure, it looks a lot easier than beating Charlie does, but we're two years out from the election- things change. Charlie should start to look more like a do-nothing, and Mel Martinez might decide to gracefully bow out, leaving the Republicans to nominate someone who could give us more of a challenge. In short, get excited about another Democratic senator, but don't bet money on it just yet.

While there's a crowded bench for Senate, there is literally no bench for governor- outside Alex Sink. If Democrats want to stop losing the state, then we can't cede races like the 2010 gubernatorial. We need to not only nominate a candidate, but we need to nominate a good one. Right now, no other Democrat is really dipping the proverbial toe in the water- no one, not even Rod Smith.

And, there's my peace.

Registered Republicans: Only Minority Group GOP Can Win?

Cross-posted on draftalex.com

If you didn't catch it, Mel Martinez was on Meet the Press this morning. And, Mel had this to say about his party and Hispanic voters:

"Hispanics are going to be a more and more vibrant part of the electorate and our party better figure out a way to talk to them...Sen. McCain did not deserve what he got, he valiantly fought for immigration reform, but the (anti-immigration) voices in our party, if they continue we're going to be relegated to minority status."
[Insert obvious joke about Republican minority status here.] So, here's the breakdown on Hispanic voters in FL for you.
  • Nationally, Kerry only won 53% of the Hispanic vote; Kerry won just 44% of Florida Latinos. Latino voters were 8% of the national electorate in 200; 15% of the FL electorate.
  • In 2006, in the general gubernatorial election, Davis and Crist each won 49% of the Latino vote. Latinos were 11% of the electorate.
  • Obama won 67% of the Hispanic vote nationally; in Florida, Obama won 57% of their vote. Nationally, Latino voters were 9% of the electorate; in Florida, they made up 14%.
Another fun note to make is that 2008 was the first time in which there were more registered Hispanic Dems in Florida than Hispanic Republicans- by a 100k margin. And although these statistics don't take into account the differences between Cuban and non- Cuban Latino voters in Florida, it does give a good overview of how the Latino vote helped Obama to carry Florida and win the White House. It also shows why Florida Democrats need to nominate candidates that can win over the Hispanic voters of the state.

The Way To Win Florida, Lessons for 2010

There will be - and already are - a vast number of post-mortems about how Barack Obama won Florida. But, the best take so far is the one appearing in this mornings Palm Beach Post.

The highlights of his success are that Obama successfully cut down on Republican success throughout the state, in counties like Duval, Sarasota, Polk, Lee, Collier, Pasco, and Escambia, as well as surpassing Kerry's success in strongholds like Orange and Alachua counties. It should also be noted that Obama took both Hillsborough and Pinellas counties, which Kerry lost.

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